2014 Congressional Election: What Does it Mean for Trade and Agriculture?

The 2015 shift of the U.S. Senate to Republican control — resulting from the November 4 election — will lead to many changes at the federal level. Expected Republican Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) has very publicly committed to reopening the Senate to debating legislation beyond just spending bills. Legislation from the House will now be able to move through the congressional process with greater potential for reaching the President's desk in some form. Obviously the President may decide to exercise his veto power, but there also will likely be some legislation the President will allow to become law. While Senate rules protect the rights of the minority party, because it can require 60 votes rather than 51 to gain approval on major matters, there are several important issues related to trade and agriculture that may now be able to gain approval in the Senate and to become law. 

Legislation to Watch

Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and then possible international trade agreements — the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) — could conceivably be taken up by Congress if the Obama administration can successfully conclude these negotiations. 

Energy legislation, including approval of the Keystone XL pipeline and modification, or even elimination of the renewable fuel mandate — the renewable fuel standard — will be at great risk with the Senate once again open for legislative business.

Some modifications to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act could be possible, including some modifications to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rules through legislative reauthorization of the CFTC. 

A majority Republican Senate and House will aggressively try to stop what they view as excessive regulation by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other administrative agencies, including rules on climate change, waters of the U.S. and others. It's likely this could mostly be done by cutting off spending to these agencies through the annual appropriations process.

Republican Senate leaders may use the budget reconciliation process to address major issues where it is not possible to gain 60 Senate votes, including changes to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, tax reform and possibly other matters.

End to Gridlock in Sight?

Republicans also added to their majority in the House of Representatives — likely an increase of 10-13 Republican members for a total of 243-246, depending on final counts in some districts — a record number of Republican members.

Republicans won nearly all of the closely contested governor races including an unexpected win in deeply blue Maryland.  

Generally, there should be less gridlock in Washington, D.C. in the coming months, although everyone should expect the President to aggressively use his veto threat. It will be nearly impossible for Senate Republican leadership to achieve the vote of 67 senators needed to override presidential vetoes.